SGC · IPCC FOD v4 · Nigerian-Calibrated · Dual Economic Model · Location-Aware

Sofe Green Credit
Feasibility Simulator

SME operator economics · Platform sustainability (10% add-on) · Nigerian-calibrated IPCC parameters (Oyelola & Babatunde 2008) · Downloadable results

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Location Detection
Allow location access to auto-load IPCC climate zone (k, MCF, DOC) for your region
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BOM Input/yr
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SGC Yr1 (per SME)
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Platform Break-even
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Core Model Equations
// IPCC FOD (Eq.1) — BE_y baseline methane
BE_y = φ×(16/12)×F×DOCf×MCF × Σ[Wx×DOC×e-k(y-x)×(1−e-k)]

// SGC Minting (Eq.2-3)
SGC_y = BE_y × GWPCH4 = BE_y × 84

// Platform Revenue (10% add-on) (Eq.7)
R_plt = (Σ SGC_all_SMEs × 0.10) × P_SGC

// Platform Break-even (MVA, Eq.9)
MVA = OPEX_PLT ÷ (0.10 × yield_per_tonne × P_SGC)
Operator Parameters
Waste Input
Total MSW/day (t) 1.47
Thesis scales: Small 1 t BOM/day ≈ 1.47 t MSW · Medium 5 t ≈ 7.35 t · Large 10 t ≈ 14.7 t (at 68% BOM fraction)
BOM fraction (%) 68
Lagos-calibrated: 68% (exceeds IPCC default ~50%); Oyelola & Babatunde (2008)
Location-Adjusted IPCC Parameters ↑ AUTO from location
k — decay constant (yr⁻¹) 0.185
Tropical wet (IPCC 2006 Table 3.3): 0.185 yr⁻¹
MCF — methane correction factor 0.40
Unmanaged shallow dumpsite: 0.40 (IPCC 2006 Table 3.1)
DOC — degradable organic carbon 0.68
Lagos-calibrated: 0.68 (Oyelola & Babatunde 2008)
Universal Constants — IPCC Fixed
φ — model correction0.90
IPCC FIXED
16/12 — stoichiometric1.333
IPCC FIXED
DOCf — fraction decomposing0.50
IPCC FIXED
F — CH₄ fraction in biogas0.50
IPCC FIXED
GWPCH4 — 20yr potential84×
IPCC AR6 FIXED
SME Economic Parameters
Carbon price P_SGC ($/tCO₂e) 10.0
Base $10/tCO₂e · Floor $6 (global waste-sector avg, Ecosystem Marketplace 2025) · Ceiling $20 (ACMI Nigeria target, KPMG Nigeria Dec 2025)
CAPEX ($) 2,324
Small $2,324 · Medium $4,064 · Large $6,527 (Jumia NG / Jiji.ng / LAWMA May 2026; AACE Class 4 ±30–50%)
Annual OPEX ($) 2,581
Small $2,581 · Medium $5,170 · Large $9,168 (Labour NBS ₦70K/mth + fuel NNPC ₦1,320/L + maintenance + rent · May 2026)
Discount rate r (%) 17
Nigeria: 15–20% for FX + inflation risk (Olatomiwa et al. 2015; Brealey et al. 2020). Thesis adopts 17%.
Project horizon (years) 10
Platform Sustainability Parameters
The 10% add-on mint is issued on top of every SME's 100% allocation. 6% goes to Dev, 4% to Advocacy. Platform break-even is when add-on revenue ≥ Platform OPEX.
Number of onboarded SMEs 10
Total SMEs operating on the SGC platform simultaneously
Platform OPEX Yr1 ($) 21,456
Dev FTE ₦1.5M/mth ($13,104) + Ops ₦600K/mth ($5,244) + AWS $1,836 + Gold Standard fees $1,000 + monitoring/domain $270 + Solana fees ~$2 (NBS salary data; AWS calculator 2026)
Platform OPEX growth (%/yr) 20
20%/yr — conservative below NBS CPI ~30%; reflects SME onboarding growth + Nigerian inflation (NBS 2024)
Platform CAPEX ($) 10,700
Smart contract dev $3,000 + audit $3,000 + Android app $2,500 + AWS setup $1,000 + legal/NESREA $1,000 + domain/SSL $200 (estimated market rates 2026)
SME onboarding rate (new/yr) 5
New SMEs joining the platform per year (cumulative growth)
Platform cost basis (Chapter 3.3.2): CAPEX $10,700 = smart contract dev/audit $6,000 + Android app $2,500 + AWS setup $1,000 + legal/NESREA $1,000 + domain/SSL $200. Yr1 OPEX $21,456 = Dev FTE ₦1.5M/mth ($13,104) + Ops/Advocacy ₦600K/mth ($5,244) + AWS oracle $1,836 + Gold Standard per-credit fee $1,000 + monitoring $245 + Solana tx fees ~$2 + Google Play $25. OPEX scales 20%/yr with SME onboarding and Nigerian inflation (NBS; Brealey et al. 2020). Exchange: ₦1,373/$ (CBN May 2026).
SGC Year 1
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tCO₂e tokens
Year 1 Revenue
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USD gross
Total SGC
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project life
NPV
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USD discounted
IRR
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internal rate
Payback
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break-even yr
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Adjust inputs to see SME feasibility
Minimum Viable Analysis
Min viable price
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MVA threshold
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Yr1 profit margin
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P(NPV>0) est.
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Hosting Guide
1

GitHub Pages (Free, Instant)

Upload as index.html → Settings → Pages → Deploy. Live at https://you.github.io/sgc-simulator. HTTPS included — location detection works immediately.

2

Netlify Drop (30 seconds)

Go to netlify.com/drop → drag and drop → live URL. Free HTTPS. For a custom domain like sofegreenscredit.com, connect on Netlify for ~$10/yr.

3

Location Detection

Uses browser Geolocation API (navigator.geolocation) — no API key needed. Maps coordinates to IPCC climate zone and auto-sets k, MCF, and DOC. Works on any HTTPS site.